Reckoning

The Tigers and Irish are coming. Notre Dame has had some crowning moments in the Bayou - 1973 vs. Alabama, 1992 vs. Florida, and 1997 vs. LSU (above).

So New Orleans welcomes back the Sugar Bowl after a year in exile with what might as well be a home game for LSU, and with the schedule/hype sharks circling around Notre Dame, waiting for the kill. The circus arrives in the French Quarter on December 28th and leads right through the final whistle on January 3rd, and even a casual survey of the Notre Dame psyche reveals two conflicting attitudes permeating the fanbase - optimism and dread.

The optimists fondly remember New Year's Day 1992 and its now infamous 'Cheerios' joke on the heels of two full months of punditry concernig the unworthiness of the Irish and their 8-3 record against the mighty 11-1, third-ranked Florida Gators. Once the dust settled and Jerome Bettis was done picking Gator defensive backs out from under his cleats, Notre Dame had won 39-28 and secured a Top 10 finish. The "road green" jerseys broken out specially for the game (a costume set not worn since) only furthered the legend of Lou Holtz, and the momentum lasted all the way to a victory over #1 Florida State 23 months later.

So there's reason to think positive even in light of the fact that LSU is probably the worst possible matchup the Irish could have drawn, and that the Irish drew it under circumstances that leave everybody wondering if they'll ever be able to again compete with the top echelon of college football.

Which creates that inevitable sense of dread, as any pragmatist ought to recognize that Notre Dame hasn't had a consistent rushing attack all year, and LSU boasts a terrific front four, led by the next dominant NFL tackle in Glen Dorsey. Safety LaRon Landry leads the nation's #3 pass defense, which ought to handcuff Notre Dame's only dependable asset on offense. The stage is set for game 13, in what should be a wild and unpredictable finish to a crazy 2006 season...

#11 Notre Dame vs. #4 LSU
7:30 PM CDT -- January 3, 2007
Louisiana Superdome - New Orleans, LA

Why LSU Will Win

"I'm not concerned that we don't have speed; I'm concerned that they do."
-- Charlie Weis, Dec. 19 2006

That's as close to a concession speech as Charlie Weis is ever going to give. Simple fact is that LSU is probably, pound for pound and 40-time for 40 time, the quickest and most athletic team Notre Dame will face this season. At the skill positions they're second to none - Dwayne Bowe is their top weapon at wideout, as tall and agile as Jeff Samardzija while having 4.4 speed. Craig Davis and Early Doucet are every bit the threat that a Dwayne Jarrett or Mario Manningham would be (translation: they'd be #1 WR on just about any other team in the country, including Notre Dame).

Overall, much like USC, LSU is a deeper squad in terms of speed and athleticism. No one player stands out for them, because they all divvy up the touches equally. Notre Dame will be hard-pressed to come up with a way to neutralize the advantages that the Tigers will enjoy at just about every position. They're good, plain and simple, very, very good.

Boy, that sounds depressing doesn't it? If the Tigers are so amazing, why do they have 2 losses? Well, they're first loss was a bizarre-yet-typical "SEC shootout", losing to Auburn 7-3. Later on they committed 5 turnovers in a loss to Florida at The Swamp. With a schedule that didn't require their two toughest conference games to be on the road, the Tigers might have been in Glendale. Which leads to yet another discouraging fact if you're an Irish fan - LSU protects their home turf, and while Baton Rouge is 80 miles west, this might as well be a home game. It will also be the first Sugar Bowl in the Superdome since Hurricane Katrina, and the surge of emotion from the crowd will likely create the most intimidating environment Notre Dame could possibly be walking in to. If the Tigers protect the ball and make use the natural advantages they possess, the Leprechaun winds up nothing more than Tiger Bait.


Why Notre Dame Will Win

"If you think we're going down there to get our butts whooped, you're wrong."
-- Charlie Weis, Dec. 19

Perhaps no game (other than the 2005 USC game) will serve as a better barometer of where Notre Dame is heading than this one. The Irish aren't just underdogs in this game, they're being given virtually no chance of winning. That position might just be where they feel most comfortable - after all, they were favored going into the Michigan game and lost by 26, with much of the blame falling on Weis' tight-lipped, noncommittal attitude filtering down onto his players. ND blog observers at the Blue-Gray Sky wrote the following: "Weis is responsible for the attitude and mental preparation of the team. For allowing this group of pre-season all-world prima donnas (on offense, at least) to show up for this game expecting to stroll out on to the field and beat Michigan, Weis earns an F-." Ouch.

So the news that Weis plans some signigicant tweaks to the bowl prep - such as (GASP!) allowing his players extended curfew during their first night in New Orleans - might feed a perception that Weis is trying to play the expectations game, angling to keep Notre Dame's opinion of itself so low that the inevitable beatdown won't seem so bad. WRONG. Just like the first 24 games of his tenure, Weis wants to win this game. Badly.

But can he concoct enough strategic mismatches in favor of his team to compensate for the obvious physical ones that work against them? Yes and no. I know this might sound crazy, but the best style of attack against LSU is actually an old-school boxing method (Tom Zbikowski ought to love this one). Weis will turn into Rocky Balboa, figuring out to keep his team standing long enough and letting frustration set in for Les Miles because he can't turn in another one-punch victory like he does against Kentucky and Arizona. The key is to let LSU's quick-strike style exhaust itself early. If you look at the Tigers' season, their main flaw is obvious and appears to be mental - they either lost or struggled mightily against teams they couldn't put away by the end of the first quarter.

Such is the key to Notre Dame's survival - if they can limit the big plays and withstand the initial onslaught, they'll have LSU standing in bewilderment like they were against Ole Miss, a game that got pushed into overtime. Another tidbit of history to raise your spirits, ND fans: Weis has a track record of helping guide teams with virtually no chance to improbable upset victories in the Superdome (see: Super Bowl XXVI).

The Prediction

Awful hard to pick against LSU in this matchup. The intangibles might favor the Irish, but there'll be a huge swell of hometown emotion to carry the Tigers should they be in need of a boost. The offenses are comparable, so it comes down to defense - and Tigers coordinator Bo Pelini has had a unit ranked in the top 3 nationally for each of the past two seasons.

Ultimately, the game follows a similar trajectory to last season's Fiesta Bowl. The Irish find ways to stave off a complete blowout and claw back into the game, but there's too much disparity in overall talent to overcome.

So why are legions of Irish fans heading to LSU and paying $125 a pop to see another loss? I refer back yet again to The West Wing, in the final episode to feature Rob Lowe's Sam Seaborn. Sam asks Toby why he's bothering to wage a campaign doomed to fail. Toby's response:

"You're going to lose and you're going to lose huge. They're gonna throw rocks at you next week, and I wanted to be standing next to you when they did."

LSU 33, Notre Dame 21.

2007 Allstate Sugar Bowl

I'm going to explain my feelings about this in more detail later in the week after I'm done with my last paper and have safely reached the haven of study days.

When it became official at 8:14 PM EDT that Notre Dame would be playing LSU on January 3rd in the Sugar Bowl, I had a vivid flashback of an early episode of The West Wing, when Toby winds up accidentally in the middle of a major insider-trading scandal because of a loose affiliation with some guy who testified before Congress about some random tech commodity. A transcript of what Toby said at the time:

"I'm so...completely SCREWED."

More on this to come.

Post Mortem: USC 44, Notre Dame 24

So close, and yet so far.

What a strange game to be associated with, and not just because the LA Coliseum has got to be the least appealing, worst-sounding stadium to watch football in the land-locked United States, or because there were somehow empty seats across the USC student section for what was supposed to the biggest game of their season.

Looking at everything except the score on the stat sheet, this was an even tilt contest. Yardage - identical at 404 yards, and well spread between running and passing for both teams. First downs - comparable, ND's 18 to USC's 21. USC committed two turnovers and had a bunt blocked versus Notre Dame's one fumble in the red zone, which was neutralized by that blocked kick. Time of possession was a draw, penalty yardage was a wash (42 yards against the Irish, 39 against the Trojans), and Notre Dame never started with field position worse than its own 20, twice taking over the ball at or beyond midfield.

Yet the Irish never significantly threatened, and the reason this time was pretty simple: USC was just too good.

Blaming coach and scheme is the easy way out, most of the time. Obviously personnel will always be the deciding factor in football and, over time, consistently meager personnel is the quickest way for a coach to get fired. But what a lot of Notre Dame fans love to do after a loss, whether by one point or by 50, is rant and rave about how coaching is the root of all problems, as if Rick Minter alone could devise a way to have four guys with 4.5 speed cover a quartet of receivers who all run a 4.3 (Not that anybody, least of all Charlie Weis, should absolve Minter of blame. It's one thing for a guy to be fast, but when he's also ridiculously wide open, that's partly on the coach. More on that later).

Now comes the refrains that boiled over during the Michigan aftermath: "Weis is too uptight. He's too wrapped up in the professional mentality. He doesn't get how special college football is, he doesn't let his kids be kids, he doesn't give them time to have fun. Look at Pete Carroll - he's a guy who knows how a college program should be run. Weis isn't there yet, and his team being uptight is the reason ND has lost 4 of their 5 games during his tenure."

Yeah, the Fiesta Bowl loss had nothing to do with the athleticism of Troy Smith, the speed of Ted Ginn and Antonio Pittman, or the fact that Ohio State showcased 5 first-round NFL draft picks. It was because Coach Weis limited the extracurricular activities to a team screening of "King Kong". Riiiiiggghhhtt....

Or, the Michigan game this year had nothing to do with Mike Hart or Prescott Burgess or Mario Manningham or Steve Breaston. It was because Weis spent the week not referring to Michigan by name, playing it as "just another game" instead of a civilization-as-we-know-it-will-end-if-we-lose cataclysmic event. Oooookkkkaaayyy...

If I hear one more person suck off Pete Carroll for his "Peter Pan meets Van Wilder" routine, lauding it as the greatest coaching style in the history of recorded sport, I'm going to puke. If USC were an 8-4 program, I guarantee people would not be amused by his fake suicide stunts and his pokes that opposing coaches look like their going to pick up the morning paper. But at USC Carroll is the Don of the Trojan Family - he can get a doorknob into what is otherwise a fine academic institution, set the kids up with ins to meet Snoop and Will Ferrell, entice them with the concept of three to four years of fun in the Los Angeles sun without the hassle of having to attend class, and God knows what else. (Before deciding I'm just a hopelessly bitter ND fan, bear in mind that I used to attend USC and encountered more than one football player in an "academic" setting, and I use the term academic in its broadest sense.)

Pete Carroll is basically Larry Coker but with continued winning. Got a running back who for FIVE STRAIGHT SEMESTERS can't get academically eligible? No problem with Reggie Bush, LenDale White, CJ Gable, and Emmanuel Moody all in the pipeline. Got a cornerback busted dealing out HUNDREDS of extascy pills? No sweat with Taylor Mays waiting in the wings. As long as the Trojans win Carroll will be the gold standard, but should he trip, he'll wind up like Coker - the fun-loving uncle who lets the kids get away with the things their parents won't allow. Just keep racking up wins, and nobody will have a problem.

What's any of this have to do with what happened on Saturday night anyhow? You could single out certain playcalls as a problem for the Irish - going to endzone on a managable fourth down in USC territory stands out, one that earned Weis a slap from resident Chicago Sun-Times doofus Jay Mariotti for "being arrogant". Of course, had it worked, it would've been another example of gutsy genius. But overall it would be tough to say Weis had the wrong gameplan in place and let that be the lone factor in Notre Dame's losing this game. The Irish didn't make the move when they had to, didn't steal the momentum of the game when it was right there to be stolen during a second quarter that featured two Trojan interceptions and a blocked punt. Those three plays had a residual effect of just 7 points and left the Irish in a 21-10 halftime hole. Part of that is playcalling, but a much bigger part is the fact that USC has a motherlode of the nation's top athletes, while Notre Dame has maybe a handful.

Ask Michigan how easy it is to mount a comeback on a top-tier opponent in their stadium when down double digits at halftime. The only reason Michigan has a case for an Ohio State rematch is because they DID turn Buckeye miscues into points during the 3rd quarter of that game, and the only reason they didn't lose by 11 was because of an atrocious pass-interference call in the waning moments of the 4th. Factor in that the only reason the Irish lost by 20 was because of an atrociously bad onside kick being housed by Brian Cushing, and the two of them had similar days during the biggest road tests of the season. Michigan fans can holler at me all they want, but the Wolverines couldn't stop Smith and Ginn any better than the Irish could contain John David Booty and Jarrett, so the comparision's valid in my mind.

So where does Notre Dame go from here? Most likely to a BCS bowl, with their credentials under much scrutiny from anybody without allegiances to making money. Not that the Irish did much to inspire confidence by losing the two biggest games of their season by a combined score of 91-45. But as long as they can cling to the top 14 of the all-powerful BCS standings, they're a good bet for either the Sugar, Rose, or Orange Bowls, in that order of likelihood. How intriguing might it be for Notre Dame to meet Florida in a Sugar Bowl the pundits say it doesn't deserve against a young hothead of a coach with no shortage of baggage in relation to Notre Dame? If that scenario sounds familiar, it's because it already happened once in 1992, with Jerome Bettis helping 8-3 Notre Dame provide an unhappy ending for Steve Spurrier's beautiful renaissance in Gainesville.

In the long run, Notre Dame still has some major holes, but they're not any different than what people already were saying. In the team speed department, they still are a step behind the elite programs, and not even the greatest schemes in the world can solve that. It cannot be disputed that two years in, Rick Minter's defensive philosophy has yet to prove consistent results. Maybe it can as youngsters Darrin Walls, Raeshon McNeil, and incoming elite prospect Gary Gray take over in the secondary, but Lord knows few Irish fans have the patience to find out. My gut tells me Minter will be here for at least another season, but I wouldn't call Charlie Weis the kind of man who hesistates if he sees a need for things to change.

Heavyweight Championship

Charlie Weis has termed Notre Dame's November schedule as "playoff mode". Made sense, especially when you see the Irish taking care of business two weeks ago against Air Force while nearly half the Top 10 fell in head-scratching upsets, and Florida narrowly avoided disaster against the Ol' Ball Coach. You have to play Week 1 well in order to get to Week 2.

And once the Irish were in Week 2, they spent most of that time getting prepped...for Week 3. Except that nobody other than Weis knew it. By the coach's count, roughly 66% of the practice time during the last week was focused on stuff the Irish would only need against USC. Smacks of Tiger Woods tanking early season tournaments just to perfect shots and strategies he's only going to need at Augusta National. Difference of course being that in this metaphor, the Trojans would have to be considered Tiger and the Irish, on their best day, might be Jim Furyk.

So it's come to this: a meeting of two powerful rivals on a Saturday night in the City of the Angels, one loss dangling over the head of each team, nearly everything still in front of them. The Trojans have the inside track all the way to "The Game" against Ohio State. Notre Dame would probably need to win this game by 17, have Florida and Arkansas respectively implode in their final two games, then pray for enough voter amnesia to vault past Michigan. Still, a spot in one of the four BCS bowl games is a virtual lock for the Irish, provided they don't embarrass themselves. Game 12...

#6 Notre Dame vs. #3 Southern California
5:00 PM PST
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum - Los Angeles, CA

Why USC Will Win

They're good. They're very, very good. And they know it.

Pete Carroll's brand of coaching, which consists of part strategist, part motivational speaker, and part bats**t-crazy pep clubber on speed, has made USC into the team of the '00s for college football. No getting around it - a chance to play for a third title in 4 seasons, to say nothing of 5 consecutive Pac-10 championships and 3 Heismans since 2002, tell you everything you need to know about the type of program Carroll has built since migrating to college after two unremarkable stints at the pro level.

The big question mark for the Trojans coming into 2006 was how they would replace their All-Heisman backfield, and while John David Booty may not be Matt Leinart quite yet, he's certainly no young and inexperienced first-year starter (come to think of it, neither was Leinart when he stepped in for Carson Palmer back in '03. Coincidence? I think not.) What a lot of people didn't account for in assessing USC before the season began was how much they retained, and how it would more than offset losing the three-headed monster of Leinart, Reggie Bush, and LenDale White. Sure, the Trojans miss the Hollywood A-Listers, but they kept almost all of the supporting cast and beefed up their roles: OL Sam Baker and Ryan Kalil, WR Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett, DE Lawrence Jackson, DT Sedrick Ellis, and the deepest LB crop in the country with Rey Maulauga, Dallas Sartz, Keith Rivers, Thomas Williams & Brian Cushing. They're stacked, plain and simple, at every position, and they have outstanding coaching to boot.

So the Trojans don't even have to focus on any one element in order to succeed Saturday night - they've got a clear-cut edge in a lot of categories on the Irish, across the board: more depth, more speed, more athleticism, particularly across the front 7, which absolutely demolished the morale of the Cal Bears last weekend. If they don't beat themselves (like they did against Oregon State), it's tought to see anybody beating them.

Why Notre Dame Will Win

I have yet to see the movie, but I already like the overarching theme of "Glory Road", even though it's the same as every other predictable yet honest and outstanding sports film produced by Disney during this decade. Coach Haskins, cajoling his players during a timeout (which I'm assuming is from the NCAA Championship game which Texas Western won), tells them:

"IT'S NOT ABOUT TALENT! IT'S ABOUT HEART! IT'S ABOUT WHO CAN GO OUT THERE AND PLAY THE HARDEST! THEY'RE NOT GONNA GIVE US ANYTHING! SO YOU GOTTA GO OUT THERE, AND YOU GOTTA TAKE IT!"

The Irish will need to reach down deep and get in touch with every axiom about "who wins football games and why". At day's end, after all the coaching and prognosticating, it's about which group of 11 guys on the field wants it more. Who's willing to do what the other guy can't? Who's ready to fight for that extra inch, throw that extra block, surrender that extra ounce of themselves for the good of the team? Can the Irish be that group? If not, then statistically and physically speaking, they might as well not show up on Saturday. And if they should fight valiantly and lose by 13, they can go home with a 10-2 season, the only losses being to 2/3 of the top 3 teams in the country. Sometimes there are no rational explanations for why one team beats another. Sometimes the other team just makes one more play than you do, even though you had all the skill. Notre Dame needs to be "that other team".

Even so, tangible needs have to be met for Quinn & Co. to have a chance. Turnover battle - a must-win for the Irish. Some protection up front on the offensive line - essential. Extreme, extreme discipline along the defensive back seven in matching up with USC's stable of receivers and running backs - indispensable. But all that is secondary behind one deal-breaking question:

WHO WANTS IT MORE?

Notre Dame does.

The Prediction

Notre Dame and USC battle it out in the cool Los Angeles night, producing another taut, exciting game. ND has not played 60 minutes of flawless football, and that's exactly what it will take just to have a chance with an opponent of USC's caliber. Want to silence the critics? Then Win. Sometimes you do things without any rational basis, which is what I'm doing with my prediction on who's going to win this game. Every other measuring stick says USC should take it by at least 10 points. If the game played out 100 times, USC would probably win 96 or 97 times. But anything can happen, especially with what turned out to be two weeks of game prep for the Irish and a senior class that doesn't want anything else in the world except to defeat USC.

Notre Dame 38, USC 37.

Post Mortem: Notre Dame 41, Army 9

We didn't do a preview of this past weekend's Notre Dame-Army game. Turns out to have been a smart move, because the build-up for it was equivalent to that of a bye week.

You know what I'm talking about. 2/3 of the plays ran at practice during Army week weren't for Army. At the Friday night pep rally, Leprechaun Kevin Braun extolled the Irish faithful to cheer their squad to victory late Saturday - but he wasn't talking about Army. And by the time the Irish left the field after a very successful Senior Day, the scoreboard had Notre Dame squaring off against somebody, and it wasn't Army.

The game itself was a foregone conculsion; Bobby Ross conceded as much in his postgame comments that, "Notre Dame's just a lot better than we are, and we all know that." This Notre Dame team, while not actually looking past Army, was definitely looking ahead...to USC.

Full preview coming tomorrow night. On a personal note, we here at Sox-Irish are happy to proclaim that the sixth (possibly seventh - historians differ over how far back the tradition reaches) annual TurkeyGate was, in the words of Borat, "GREAT SUCCESS!!! HIGH FIVE!" Now comes the follow-up: TurkeyGate in L.A.




See you Saturday.

Those Who Fail to Learn Air Force History...

...are doomed to repeat it.

1996 ought to be an example to every Notre Dame follower that Air Force cannot be taken lightly. The Irish have withstood some scares from Army and Navy, but the flyboys had 4 straight wins against ND in the '80s, then stunned the Irish 20-17 in overtime at Notre Dame Stadium in Lou Holtz's final season as coach. In fact, the Air Force game is looked to as the beginning of the end for Lou, which begat Bob Davie, which begat...you get the idea.

In 23 years under Fisher DeBerry, Air Force has proven that you can in fact build a consistent-if-not-dominant football program at a service academy, with their unique blend of the triple option often wreaking havoc in the Mountain West and delivering 12 bowl bids and 15 Commander-in-Cheif trophies. Add in that they play fearless: they went into Knoxville this season and played the Volunteers 'til the final whistle, electing to go for two after scoring to get the game to 31-30. The Irish know the history. Time to make it irrelevant.

#9 Notre Dame vs. US Air Force Academy
2:00 PM MDT
Falcon Stadium -- Colorado Springs, CO

Why Air Force Will Win

Shaun Carney and the triple option. The first half against Navy certainly should provide a boost to the Falcons' confidence that Notre Dame won't be able to grasp the option quickly enough. It's one thing to see it in practice - seeing it at game speed tends to knock teams back at first. But the Irish readjusted and clamped the Navy ground game in the second half, allowing only 60 yards rushing.

That's where Carney comes in. He's a versatile QB, and Air Force (no pun intended) feels a lot more comfortable taking flight than the Midshipmen do. They won't call 15 first down pass plays, but first down won't exclusively belong to the halfbacks in this offense. Air Force also utilizes a tight end and multiple formations, even for circumstances when they run the option. It'll be up to Carney to throw enough different looks (and a few timely completions) to keep the Irish defense off-kilter. That's the means by which Air Force pulls the upset.

Why Notre Dame Will Win

Rhema McKnight and Jeff Samardzija. Currently duking it out (kinda) for the ND records in receptions and receiving touchdowns, this game could be akin to the field day Samardzija and Mo Stovall had against BYU last year. Air Force's defense is an aggressive bunch, but that's gotten them only to #106 in pass efficiency defense, #55 overall. They also haven't seen anything resembling Notre Dame's top two pass catchers during their run in the Mountain West conference.

Samardzija becomes the deep threat in this matcup, exploiting his height advantage on every member of the Air Force secondary - the two starting corners stack up at a listed 6-0 and 5-11, far below his lanky 6-5 frame. Charlie Weis' gameplan, particularly against an Air Force unit that is far better this season against the run than last (only 132 ypg this season, down from 171 in '05) will extend the passing game to cover more screens and draws, hoping to let McKnight as well as Darius Walker and TE John Carlson create plays in the open space.

As always, the first couple of drives will dictate the tone for the Irish on both sides of the ball. Air Force has the nation's #3 rush offense and a defense which, physically, doesn't match up along the front trench. The Falcons have three starting D-lineman who weigh in at under 250, while the Irish boast an O-line average near 300 a man. Nobody's expecting anything dominant, but a few early scores to force Air Force to play catch-up with the limited range of the triple option are essential to get the team to 9-1.


The Prediction

Brady Quinn and the Irish assume control of the game with a couple of early scores, but a scrappy Air Force team that has a knack for creating turnovers and taking chances, particularly on special teams, will fight all the way. Ultimately, superior depth and scheming carries the day for the Irish.

Notre Dame 34, Air Force 20

EDITOR'S NOTE - We know we didn't bother recapping Navy or devoting any time to North Carolina. Can you blame us? The Tarheels were 1-7!

Anchors Aweigh!

Notre Dame-Navy, not so much a rivalry as a contest defined by tradition and respect between two historic American institutions, resumes tomorrow in Baltimore with the Irish heavily in the BCS mix and the Midshipmen continuing their encouraging trend under Paul Johnson. Many college football pundits openly wonder why Notre Dame continues to schedule year in and year out a team they haven't lost to since the Roger Staubach era in 1963. The Irish have 43 consecutive wins against the academy, an NCAA record for one school versus another, and every game represents a pyhsical and statistical mismatch of epic proportions. But one thing Navy always does - play with pride and play with intensity. It's why, against Irish squads that were less focused, they came dangerously close to ending the streak on multiple occasions. But for a DJ Fitzpatrick field goal to close the game, the 2003 contest would have gone to overtime, and Bob Davie's 1999 squad needed a highly questionable spot of the ball on 4th-down to keep alive the game-winning touchdown drive. Here's hoping no similar heroics are necessary on Saturday...

#11 Notre Dame vs. US Naval Academy
12:00 PM EDT
M&T Bank Stadium -- Baltimore, MD

Why Navy Will Win

How to put this delicately - they can't. Not unless they generate an awesome ground attack or feel comfortable enough to put the ball in the air 35 times without an interception or an incompletion. It isn't that Navy doesn't have hard-working players - on the contrary, every coach in America would love the dedication these guys bring to the field. That's the best chance for Paul Johnson's crew, to just go out there with the old college try and pray for Notre Dame to make enough mistakes to let them stay in the game.

To Johnson's credit, he knows exactly what he's up against. "Notre Dame has Parade All-Americans, and we have guys who've marched in a parade", he is fond of saying. But he has still brough the Naval Academy one of the country's most potent rushing attacks (316 yards per game) and has to expect that his guys can control the line of scrimmage. If they do it long enough, limiting Brady Quinn's opportunities to light up a defense allowing 348 yards per game, his squad has a shot. It's all he can ask for.


Why Notre Dame Will Win

Notre Dame should DOMINATE the line of scrimmage against the Midshipmen. All those rushing yards are impressive, but quarterback Brandon Hampton was instrumental in that attack and he's out with a knee injury. Furthermore, the Irish are simply a much bigger, much stronger unit on both sides of the trench. Hey offensive line, want to shut people up for one week? Utilizing that 40-pounds-per-man advantage (294 vs. 251) you'll have against Navy would be good.

No matter what Navy's offense might be able to do against the front four of the Irish, where the physical matchup is basically even, Notre Dame's offense ought to be too much for the academy to hang with for very long. Look for the academy to mix in more passes early on than their used to, but a faster linebacking corps with Travis Thomas and a slimmed-down Chinedum Ndukwe should be able to contain the option better than Notre Dame has in year's past.

One of the interesting things to watch will be how Notre Dame does on the first three offensive series. Will the miracle play against the Bruins last week serve as another spark plug to early success, like three weeks ago when the offense ran rough-shod over Purdue, or will they come out lacksadaisical and let an opponent hang around. Last year's game was 28-7 at halftime. Let's see if the Irish can match that production again in Baltimore.

The Prediction

Charlie Weis has an immense amount of respect for Navy, but given the mini-controversy surrounding his assessment of pollster opinion and the suspect nature of Notre Dame's defense, perhaps he will not resist the urge to pour it on tomorrow.

Notre Dame 38, Navy 17.

Post Mortem: Notre Dame 20, UCLA 17

Won on one.

For the second time in five weeks, Notre Dame saw its life flash before its eyes, and for the second time, they somehow managed to walk away still standing, now at 6-1 and in the hunt for one of the 10 lucrative BCS berths.

A lot was made of UCLA's remodeled defense having an artifically high ranking thanks to playing half of its games against teams that rank 92nd or worse in total offense. That might still prove to be the case, with the Bruins yet to face off with three Pac-10 units that rank in the Top 25 of total offense (USC, Cal, and Washington State), but Karl Dorrell's team certainly played like one of the ten best defenses in the country on Saturday. At least until the final 1:02.

Which leads to the real story of the day: when can Notre Dame establish a legitimate rhythm on offense? They can look stuck in neutral for a whole game (Georgia Tech). They can look pretty well in-synch for a whole game (Penn State). They can perform atrociously for a half (Michigan, Michigan State). They can perform brilliantly for a half (Michigan State). They can look good on one drive, bad on the next (Purdue). And they can look like they honestly don't care and still hang 31 (Stanford). They even moved the ball effectively at times against the Bruins, none bigger than 80 yards, 3 plays, 35 seconds in the waning moments of the 4th quarter.

But 60 minutes of complete football evades the Irish from an offensive standpoint. Here were some of Coach Weis' comments at today's wrap-up press conference:

I've watched the tape, so I'm not good in a good mood anymore...

I thought we got off to a horrendous start. We turned the ball over on the second play and then we go three and out the next possession. That's just unacceptable. We really fumbled the ball twice, not once. We lose it on Darius's and then we're down in the red zone going in and we fumble the quarterback's center exchange. That ends up leading to costing you points, even though we didn't lose the ball...

We were 4 and 19 on 3rd down, which was horrendous. We got into the red zone three times, scored one touchdown. That's horrendous. Gave up five sacks and nine pressures. That's horrendous...

So basically you're saying there's still some work to do.The best news for the Irish is that they escape with the win and now basically have four glorified scrimmages - Navy, North Carolina, Air Force, and Army - to prepare themselves for the season-ending showdown in Los Angeles. Having endured three nailbiters (two on the road, one at home), three comfortable wins, and one awful blowout, the entire season has been boiled down to one game.

Elsewhere, there's a high probability of several others around them in the rankings suffering losses - Tennessee, Florida, and Auburn belong to the merciless SEC, and only one of that trio finishes with a single loss; either West Virginia or Louisville is certain to lose once, and both of them better be damn well ready to play Rutgers in November; USC still has to play Cal, Oregon, & UCLA; and, of course, Ohio State and Michigan play each other. There's room for the Irish to manuever in the rankings - high enough for the championship game? No. But certainly high enough to solidify their BCS credentials and maybe even benefit from a miraculous fall of dominoes should they defeat the Trojans.

But to entertain thoughts of a 5-0 finish, an 11-1 season, and a holiday visit to sunny Miami, vibrant New Orleans, pleasent Pasadena, or even wonderful Glendale, the overall effort the Irish had on Saturday won't cut it. Not even close.

Despite all the negative vibes you might want to take from the first 59 minutes, how sweet was that play?

Bear Trap

Notre Dame and UCLA have had a few memorable tilts on the hardwood, but their football history stretches back exactly two games, both played in South Bend during the early 1960s. The Bruins visit Notre Dame Stadium tomorrow at a modest 4-2, now trying to redefine the identity of their offense without Ben Olson, the 23-year old redshirt freshmen quarterback. Backup Patrick Cowan wasn't exactly stellar during the loss at Oregon last week, while the Irish have had two weeks to prepare and rest ailing defensive players Tom Zbikowski, Ambrose Wooden, and Travis Thomas. It's mid-October, hope is in the air at Notre Dame Stadium, and a team from Southern California comes calling. Looks like its time for Game 7 in ND's 12 part march to glory...

#9 Notre Dame vs. UCLA
2:30 PM EDT
Notre Dame Stadium - Notre Dame, IN

Why UCLA Will Win

Statistically, this is the strongest defense the Irish have faced (practically that title belongs to Michigan, but the numbers never lie. Riiiiggghhhttt...) But, just one year removed from a defensive unit that conjured up new applications of the word "awful", new coordinator DeWayne Walker has the Bruin defense walking tall as a top 10 unit in total defense and scoring defense, surrendering just 252 yards and 15 points a game.

The lofty #9 rank on defense isn't completely worthy of the hype, though. Five of the Bruins six opponents rank in the bottom half of NCAA offenses, including juggernauts Rice (#92 in total offense), Arizona (#111), and Stanford (#115). Even so, a unit that surrendered better than 400 yards per game with ease last season, including an ugly 66 points in the season finale against USC, deserves a pat on the back for the quick strides they've made.

The gameplan for the Bruins has two basic components - pressure Brady Quinn, and win the turnover battle to set up a short field for their middling offense. Defensive rush specialist Justin Hickman has 7.5 sacks on the season, while a pass defense paced by Chris Horton, Al Verner, and Trey Brown has racked up 8 picks and 24 deflections. If the Bruins get the Irish to commit a bevy of mistakes, they've got more than a fighting chance.

Why Notre Dame Will Win

Six weeks ago it didn't seem like Travis Thomas could possibly be the focal point of the Notre Dame defense. But plain and simple, the Irish D changes with him on the field. For Thomas, along with Ambrose Wooden and Tom Zbikowksi to all be missing time over the past two games created a sense of urgency within the D, as youngsters Ray Herring, John Ryan, Darrin Walls, and Morrice Richardson assumed a more active role, not to mention little used senior Joe Brockington being thrust into the starting spotlight. The urgency just got upped even more with news that one of the most experienced pass-rushers, Ronald Talley, has left the team. With the bye week used as an opportunity to get completely healthy, look for the Irish D too reassert themselves in Coach Weis' "second season".

On offense, the bye week has always been a tool for Notre Dame, and under this coaching staff look for things to be no different. It might in fact be a good defense coming out from Westwood, but they didn't exactly ace their first difficult road test in Eugene, allowing 30 points and 400 yards to the Ducks. More significantly, UCLA yielded 256 yards rushing, and Coach Weis and Darius Walker would love to see the Irish running game looking better and better, as it has over the last two opponents. So while it may not be the most flashy offensive gameplan coming out of the chute on Saturday, the Irish will once again settle for steady, meticulous drives that balance running and passing. A strengthened defense should use that to their advantage and put the game away.

The Prediction

Neither team explodes on offense, but neither team implodes on defense. The Irish just stick with the gameplan and remember who's supposed to be doing what on this day.

Notre Dame 28, UCLA 14

Post Mortem: Notre Dame 31, Stanford 10

The game was so boring, it took 11 days just to muster up the strength to say, "I've got nothing else to do, might as well recap the game."

The Irish took their sweet-ass time against a Stanford team that never really presented much of a challenge. Early on it looked like that might be their undoing, as they followed up a splendid, balanced opening drive with drops, lapses in judgment, a near-death experience involving a pick six that was called back, before finally reconnecting with their late first-half mojo for a 14-3 lead. (The Irish have used their last drive of the first half to score a touchdown in five of their six games.)

Darius Walker had a second straight outstanding day, again racking up almost 200 total yards, while Brady Quinn was again hitting 2/3 of his passes and avoiding mistakes. The defense held an inept Stanford offense below even their own pathetic standards, so that gets chalked up as a positive. On the whole though, there was nothing to be overly impressed about - which is probably a good thing in the long run. The Irish were exactly where they were supposed to be against an inferior opponent, in complete control. Showing some kinks in the armor under those circumstances would (hopefully) make them all the more correctable.

Oh, and as for that Heisman thing...

Adrian Peterson is done for the year. Garret Wolfe was bottled up by Western Michigan. Calvin Johnson will have one more chance, against Miami State Penitentiary (er...University). Steve Slaton isn't enough of a superstar at West Virginia. That boils the race down to Troy Smith and Brady Quinn.

How Brady is still in the race after the horror show against Michigan on September 16th is more of a testament to the fact that this is a weak overall field than to the improvements made in his game. He can't afford any subpar efforts between now and the USC game, and that'll only guarantee him a chance to make his case in primetime Thanksgiving weekend. Anything resembling an encore of the Michigan performance will give Smith a Charlie Ward-type lock on the Heisman. And as long as the Buckeyes win out, Smith will get the award anyway.

There's Really No Reason to Play This Game...

Attention Notre Dame schedule critics: you are about to be fed a whole boatload of ammunition. I speak here of the 2006 Stanford Cardinal, who come into this contest sporting an 0-5 record, have a legitimate chance at finishing the season winless, have managed to limit their leading receiver from a year ago to NO catches in the first five games, and boast one of the absolute worst offenses to ever grace a Division I-A practice field, let alone stadium. It's not hubris to suggest that Notre Dame could run the scout team out there tomorrow and feel pretty good about its chances.

Charlie Weis says, "I absolutely do not believe in running up the score." OK Chuck, work your way out of a blowout against a team whose offense AND defense rank in the triple-digit section of the NCAA stats columns.

#12 Notre Dame vs. Stanford
2:30 PM EDT
Notre Dame Stadium -- Notre Dame, IN

Why Stanford Will Win

All 22 starters on Notre Dame get food poisoning. And need an emergency appendectomy. And contact a nasty staph infection during the operation. And suffer massive internal bleeding that finally takes them down sometime in the third quarter. (Sorry, I've been watching a lot of House lately.) Is this a trick question? Stanford gives up an average of 458 yards and 37 points, while their juggernaut of an offense averages 289 yards and 12 points. They need a miracle, plain and simple.


Why Notre Dame Will Win

They remember what the Cardinal almost did to them a year ago. Down 31-30 with less than two minutes to go during the final game at old Stanford Stadium, the Irish were seeing the entire year flash before their eyes, then repsonded with a game-clinching touchdown drive. That game was what, more than any other, sold people on the idea that the Irish were still a long way from the top of the mountain.

While the performance thus far in 2006, particularly on defense, says that the critics have it more right than wrong, one of the best judges of an elite team is the time it takes them to dispose of somebody who's hopelessly overmatched. The Irish struggled to easily put away Syracuse and Navy as well, though they won each game by scores of 42-21 and 34-10. The key for the Irish is to go back to the cliche well and remember the simple fact - they belong on the field, Stanford doesn't. Play within yourself, blah blah blah. It's a test of maturity more than anything else, and the Irish will pass.


The Prediction

No need to be humbly respectful of the opponent this week, not when favored by 34. Irish roll.

Notre Dame 44, Stanford 14.

Post Mortem: Notre Dame 35, Purdue 21

The Irish found their running game on Saturday. Defense? I'll get back to you.

The stat sheet says that the Irish dominated the game both by ground and by air, with Darius Walker tallying 146 yards on the former, Brady Quinn 316 via the latter. The Irish held the edge in first downs, third down conversions, and held a huge advantage in time of possession.

And still Purdue piled up 490 yards of total offense. On the other hand, while all that yardage might be nice, this was a Purdue unit that came in averaging 40 points per game. Holding them to 21 deserves some sort of acknowledgment. In addition, the Irish minimized the opportunities to inflict damage on themselves by holding onto the ball and commiting only 5 penalties, two of which were HIGHLY questionable pass interference calls.

While that gouge of yardage does nothing to quiet the suspicions about Notre Dame's defense, you also have to consider that 88 of them came on what I like to call the ultimate PlayStation possession. With just 1 minute left in the first half, Purude QB Curtis Painter found Selwyn Lymon on a post, and Irish defenders Darrin Walls and Tom Zbikowski ran into each other, springing Lymon loose for an 88-yard touchdown. That's a play that every buzzed freshmen playing NCAA '07 on his PS2 completes, but the odds of it working in real life are ridiculously slim.

Then another 80 yards were racked up by Purdue on a TD drive when they trailed by 21 in the 4th quarter. While last week should serve as a reminder that the game is NEVER over in the minds of an Irish fan, was anybody truly fearful that Notre Dame would cough the game away like the Spartans did? My point is that 490 yards certainly isn't the way you want a defense to perform, but it can in fact be misleading - just like you'd look at Brady Quinn's 29 for 38 number and assume he bombed away on the 115th ranked secondary in college football. It was more of the dink, dunk, hook, and screen variety, but it got the job done.

The Irish are now fully into the "ho-hum" part of the schedule, with only UCLA representing a legitimate challenge before the season-ender against USC. If they can use this underbelly to get into a groove before the Novemeber 25th date at the Coliseum, a lot of what we expected to be on the line that day will be.

Fighting Back

Notre Dame vs. Purdue, an in-state rivalry 75 years in the making. If there's one thing the Boilermakers have traditionally been good for, it's raining on Notre Dame's parade. The boys from West Lafayette were a consistent thorn in the side of Ara Parseghian's Irish squads. While Lou Holtz had his way with a series of incompetent Purdue units, the series began to turn under the leadership of Joe Tiller, as Notre Dame bounced from Davie to Willingham to Weis.

Purdue pulled stunners in both 1997 and 1999, and were in position to take the 1998 and 2000 contests at Notre Dame Stadium. Nick Setta field goals as time expired were the difference on both of those occasions. Each team's last visit to the opposing stadium is remembered as an unmitigated disaster - Kyle Orton led a 41-16 thumping for the Boilers in South Bend that signaled the beginning of the end for Ty in 2004, and Brady Quinn was sensational during a 28-0 first half against the Boilers in primetime a year ago.

Preview 5 of 12...

#12 Notre Dame vs. Purdue
2:30 PM EDT
Notre Dame Stadium -- Notre Dame, IN

Why Purdue Will Win

Quarterback Curtis Painter is on the rise, taking over for the beleaguered Brandon Kirsch and leading Purdue on an overall seven game winning streak. Still, nobody's got them tagged as USC in the making, probably because the streak includes an overtime win against Miami (Ohio), a struggle to beat Ball State, and two I-AA teams.

Even so, Purdue still has the offensive system to compete with anybody. "Basketball on grass" has fundamentally changed how the Big 10 as a conference plays football. One curious factor to watch for here - Tiller always seems to want to run the football when in South Bend, rather than attack on the obvious passing front in the face of a suspect Irish D. But this year Notre Dame has struggled early against the run. If Purdue gets a ground attack moving early, they could stretch the game and use Charlie Weis' favorite plan - playing defense with a ball-control offense - against him for the upset victory and a 5-0 start.

Why Notre Dame Will Win

This is another firm test for the Irish, because they've gotten back something they've not had since the middle of the 4th-quarter against Penn State: momentum. The good vibes from early on in the season after the Irish gritted out a tough road victory and then gutted a challenger in their home debut are now back. Last week the challenge was to avoid a spillover effect, and the Irish flopped on that front in the first half. The whole team looked like they were still trying to figure out what had gone wrong the week before against the Wolverines. Now the script gets turned in the other direction - can the same confidence and urgency that propelled the comeback in East Lansing be channeled from the first snap in South Bend?

The defense looked paper-thin in the first half vs. Michigan State, but rose to the challenge in the second and earned back a little swagger bottling up the Michigan State offense, preventing them from closing out the victory, and then taking charge with three late turnovers. Purdue presents many of the same looks as the Spartans, particularly from the quarterback position. Their receivers lack the overall depth of previous years, but with Tiller it has always been the system more than the individual skills. That's why 2005 was such a shock to the Boiler faithful after 8 consecutive bowl bids.

The first two series for both sides of the ball will be telling for the Irish. Will they play with fire and intensity straight out of the gate, or wait until things get really sticky before kicking it into gear? Purdue's defense is shaky and their offense has potential but is inexperienced in an environment like Notre Dame Stadium. If the Irish exploit the advantages they have on both fronts, they win easily.

The Prediction

Notre Dame can go in one of two directions after Saturday's thriller: play loosey-goosey and assume they'll win the game on paper, or realize that they've yet to prove to people how good they really can be. Here's guessing Charlie Weis has prepared for the latter.

Notre Dame 37, Purdue 17.

Post Mortem: Notre Dame 40, Michigan State 37

Saving the season, or merely postponing the inevitable crash and burn?

Redeeming the offense for its struggles, or using lucky breaks to mask defensive weaknesses?

Doesn't it always feel good to be asking these questions after a win?

The 40-37 slugfest in East Lansing had a little bit of everything - sideline fights, trick plays, gutsy 4th-down calls, and crucial turnovers and bizarre changes of fortune that swung momentum wildly in either team's favor all night long.

From the get-go, the Irish looked like the first half against Michigan had never ended. The offense stalled. Special teams committed killer turnovers. The defense got caught with their pants down. And they went into the locker room down 31-14.

And the game was more lopsided than the score indicated.

Things weren't looking much better heading into the 4th quarter, as the rain evolved into a steady downpour, the wind turned back against Notre Dame, and the Spartans went in for a 37-21 lead. Then a funny thing happened on the way to complete disaster: Brady Quinn and the Irish offense finally took advantage of the opportunity they'd been given.

Let's clear up this "luck" thing. Of course Notre Dame was the beneficiary of the same type of Spartan miscues that seem to happen every year at right about the same time in the season for John L. Smith's team. Kirk Herbstreit didn't mince words in Saturday's broadcast, saying, "If you've been watching Michigan State football for the past 50 years, you know that this is why you're Michigan State." Not the last 5 years, or the last 20, or even 40. This apparently has been a recurring theme for half-a-century.

So to recap: Michigan State's Drew Stanton committed three turnovers in the final 8 minutes, Brady Quinn threw 5 TDs to help rally the Irish, and the now (once again) much-maligned Irish defense made the killer blow with an interception return for a touchdown by Terrail Lambert. Not a bad day at the office, all things considered.

Of course, many holes remain. For one thing, how to get the Irish to play with a sense of urgency straight out of the gate, rather than waiting until their actually in an emergency, down 17. On the whole the offense is still sputtering in and out of gear, and the defense of course still has major problems.

Coach Weis wasn't really in the mood to discuss any of that just yet on the rain-soaked field Saturday night. For one night, while students danced wildly in Stonehenge next to LaFortune, Weis let his players whoop it up. "I'm not bringing them down until Sunday", he said.

Nobody's confusing them with the '66 team just yet, but these Irish pulled
off what couldn't be done 40 years earlier - win the tough battle at Spartan Stadium.

Vengeance

Last year's 44-41 overtime thriller in South Bend was Michigan State's fifth consecutive victory in Notre Dame Stadium, seventh in the last nine games of the series, and a personal point of emphasis due to what happened immediately after the finish: a band of Michigan State players, apparently under a severe amount of emotional distress due to the absence of the precious Megaphone Trophy, spiked the Spartan flag at midfield.

A little churlish? Maybe. Out of line? Who cares? Neither side seems content to forget about it though, with media types baiting Notre Dame into saying something stupid and Michigan State players flashing a mix of ignorance and quiet pride at marking their 'territory'. Whatever the setup might be, Charlie Weis isn't in the mood to forget about it (behind closed doors), while John L. Smith's troops keep trying to spin it as simply an act of aggression born from the temporary dissociative insanity that was wrought by the emotional trauma of being separated from the one, the only, Megaphone. Seriously, that's what one of them said...

#12 Notre Dame vs. Michigan State
8:00 PM EDT
Spartan Stadium - East Lansing, MI

Why Michigan State Will Win

All it takes is one look at the Michigan game film to know how to beat Notre Dame. Go deep, go fast, go often. The neutralizing factor could be that the Spartans don't have a receiving corps the likes of Breaston, Manningham, and Arrington. But they do have Drew Stanton.

Stanton is one of the top QB prospects in the upcoming NFL Draft, drawing a lot of Jay Cutler comparisions. Quick feet, strong arm, killer instincts, and a thirst to beat the Irish. He entered the 2004 contest in the second half and directed a pair of scoring drives, pulling MSU within 31-24. Who knows what might've happened had he started the game. He was 16 of 27 for 327 in the 2005 game when State carved up the Irish for 488 yards and 44 points. The attack has been even stronger in 2005, ranking now as the #3 total offense in Division I-A.

Stanton is the key to the Spartan offense, no surprise there. The Irish have the experience of a dual-threat QB already this season with Georgia Tech's Reggie Ball, but Stanton has displayed a much higher "football IQ" during his tenure at State. The key matchup again lies in the trenches - Notre Dame gets pressure on Stanton, they buy time for their offense to play the preferred method of "grinder ball". They don't pressure Stanton, and it's a shootout under the lights.


Why Notre Dame Will Win

There are statement games, coming-out parties, arrivals, bounceback performances, and clutch performances. Is it possible to have all 5 in one?

Brady Quinn needs to abuse the suspect Spartan defense - they rank #49 with 300 yds/game allowed through their 3-0 start, but they've been tested against Idaho (#73 in total offense), Eastern Michigan (#95), & Pittsburgh (#50). Notre Dame clocks in at just #68 in those rankings as of now, but that's artificially low thanks to a total of 4 yards rushing vs. Michigan.

Anyway, if you're Brady Quinn and your Heisman hopes are essentially DOA, national titles dreams fading fast, you need to use primetime on ABC as a statement game - Michigan didn't rattle me. And a coming-out party - he's yet to have a lights out game this season. And an arrival - when will he develop the rythm with Samardzija of a year ago? And a bounceback performance from the 4 turnover debacle against the Wolverines.

And who knows, depending on how flimsy both teams could play defense, he might need to come through in the deep clutch. Another tough environment, another hostile crowd, a lot of history in the building due to the Spartans' honoring their 1966 team (which played Notre Dame's '66 championship squad to the infamous 10-10 tie), and an opponent that's no pushover. Want to get back in the national limelight, Brady? Come to play Saturday night.

The Prediction

Sometimes you throw the conventional wisdom out the window - it says high-scoring, tight battle, rough environment for the Irish.

What do I say? PAYBACK'S A BITCH.

Notre Dame 48, Michigan State 13.

Post Mortem: Michigan 47, Notre Dame 21

Let's start with the obvious. You know, any time you're minus four in the turnover ratio in a game, with our five turnovers to their one, you really have no chance of winning the game.

Going into the game, we always emphasize ball possession. We obviously did a very, very poor job of that starting with that second play on offense, interception for the touchdown followed by the kickoff return of which unit we were horrendous the whole day on. We'll get to that here in a minute. That's another turnover.

Then we got hit one time on a pass for a turnover. Then we threw across our body one time for a turnover. Then to put the icing on the cake, the fumble return for the touchdown at the end of the game. You're basically giving 24 points.

When you're playing against a formidable opponent like Michigan, you can't do something like that and think you have any chance of winning the game.

Say this for Charlie Weis - he's got a commitment to the truth. Michigan came, they saw, they forced mistakes, and they conquered.

Take nothing away from the Wolverines - they outmanuevered and outgunned the Irish in all three phases of the game. But Notre Dame contributed quite a bit to its own demise.

On the second play of the game, a Brady Quinn bullet deflected straight off the hands of John Carlson and into the arms of Prescott Burgess, who waltzed into the endzone for a 7-0 lead. That early bad break seemed neutralized when Chinedum Ndukwe picked off Chad Henne to set up an easy 4-yard scoring drive.

That would be as good as it got all day for the Irish. Henne kept his composure while Quinn seemed at times to be desperately evading ghost tacklers. Let's not sugarcoat things - Michigan's line generated the best front four pressure Quinn has seen this season. But it wasn't like he ended every play on his duff. More often than not, the front five of the Irish gave Quinn time. The key was Michigan's effective coverage and some curious playcalling by Coach Weis. But when the game was 34-7 in the middle of the 2nd quarter, exactly how many options did they have?

It was eerily familiar to the game that had been played just one week earlier against Penn State, only this time with the Irish being throttled due to their own incompetence instead of the other way around. There's plenty of blame to spread on this day, but during the first half the Irish were without question their own worst enemy.

Three plays stand out - the Carlson deflection, Manningham's 70-yard TD during which no defender got within 20 yards of him, and (most importantly) David Grimes' fumbled kickoff return after the Wolverines had gone up 13-7. You could pick any number of players, coaches, schemes, mistakes, blown assignments, dropped passes, whiffed tackles...the list goes on.

And it's a complete list, a true team failure on every level. Suddenly, the match with Michigan State isn't just a revenge game - it's become the most important game of Charlie Weis' tenure.

Zbikowski and the Irish defense had no answers on this day.

It's In The Game...RIVALRY GAME

Michigan's coming to town. One of these teams is ranked in the Top 5 with national title aspirations. The other is on mend from a 7-5 record. But unlike many past meetings, its a case of role reversal - Charlie Weis and Irish are #2 in the AP Poll, while LLLLLoyd Carr is fighting off the antsy alumni from a Wolverine program that can't seem to break back to the next level. Since Carr's shared national championship in 1997, Michigan has never lost less than 2 games per season. Much like Larry Coker, Carr is discovering national title good-will ain't what is used to be in today's college football world.

The Irish-Wolverines rivalry is defined only by the intensity within the past 20 years - 1980's Harry Oliver kick, 1989's Rocket Ismail show, 1991's Desmond Howard tour-de-force, 1999's nailbiter, 2005's Irish Upset. Unlike USC, there is NOT what you could call a healthy respect between the two schools. The teams genuinely don't like each other before the game, during the game, and after the game. Here comes Preview 3...

#2 Notre Dame vs. #11 Michigan
3:30 PM EDT
Notre Dame Stadium - Notre Dame, IN

Why Michigan Will Win

Michigan's Defense. It's as good as any the Irish will face this season, and it's largely the same unit that handcuffed Brady Quinn throughout last year's game - Quinn was 19 of 30 last year in Ann Arbor with a pair of touchdowns, but totaled just 140 yards through the air and the Irish offense as whole tallied just 244. Led by Lamarr Woodley and Alan Branch up front, this will be the stiffest challenge yet for an Irish O-line that's had trouble picking up blitzes during the first two games.

On offense, the Wolverines have a solid but unspectacular group of performers when you consider all the hype attached to them. QB Chad Henne has been the in system for three years and had only occasional flashes of brilliance, while Mike Hart has struggled with injuries ever since his breakout freshman season. Wideout/return specialist Steve Breaston has been touted as the next Desmond Howard since he arrived on campus 4 years ago, but the results (like the rest of the Wolverines squad) haven't matched the expectations.

Bottom line, the Wolverines present the most complete package of speed, athleticism, leadership, and experience the Irish will face before the season finale against USC. If Michigan springs the upset, it will be because of their attacking front seven doing what Georgia Tech and Penn State failed to do - not only to pressure Brady Quinn, but force him into game-changing mistakes.


Why Notre Dame Will Win

Notre Dame's offensive line has been called a 'disguised weakness' during the first two games, its faults being covered by the fact that the Irish won their first two contests in spite of their sometimes suspect work. Now they face their biggest test and (quite possibly) the strongest defense on their schedule.

Will Sam Young continue to quietly perform under the intense pressure of being the first freshman to start a season upfront for the Irish? Can the veterans - Santucci, Morton, & Harris - eliminate the dumb mistakes they've been prone to during the opening games? For all the talk about Brady Quinn's Heisman candidacy and Darius Walker's vision as a running back, the Irish offense won't be able to build on their 34-point display against Penn State if they can't beat back the Wolverines in the trenches. It might be repeated ad nauseum, but it's also true - the football game is won and lost in the trenches.

That goes for Notre Dame's defense too. Derek Landri and Trevor Laws have been awfully quiet this year - they'll need to blow up the protection early and often against Henne and harass him into the key mistakes he made in the Big House a year ago when he committed two red-zone turnovers. The real X-factor will be Chinedum Ndukwe: he's becoming the Glenn Earl of this unit - aka The Hit Man. Having decked Calvin Johnson and Derrick Williams in back-to-back games, look for him to welcome Steve Breaston to the neighborhood at some point on Saturday.

The Prediction

There's no such thing as a "trap game" when the opponent is ranked #11. This is no surprise attack coming from Ann Arbor. This is a good football team that - most importantly - wants blood in a tough rivalry contest. Nothing would give the Wolverines more satisfaction then knocking the Irish down a few pedestals on their march to a perfect season. This will be a close, intense game that the Irish seize with the help of solid special teams play and methodical offense, allowing them to grind the clock and win the field position battle.

Notre Dame 23, Michigan 17.

Post Mortem: Notre Dame 41, Penn State 17

Well, that was a pleasant surprise.

Not that Notre Dame's offense isn't capable of scoring 41 points. But even the most optimistic of (unbiased) prognosticators wouldn't have figured this would be the game for them to do it in.

Technically speaking the Irish hung only 34 on Penn State's young defensive unit, and surprisingly they did it by going straight at the stellar linebacking unit of the Nittany Lions. Rather than go deep early and often against an untested secondary, Brady Quinn was often looking for (rather than settling for) TE John Carlson across the middle as well as Darius Walker out of the backfield. Walker was bottled up in the running game with only 56 yards on 20 carries, but he compensated by being the top pass catcher with 7 grabs for 72 yards and a touchdown.

Brady Quinn's Heisman candidacy is alive and well: 25 of 36 for 297 and 3 TDs, and (what new?) absolutely zero mistakes. Quinn said after the game he'd like to have a few throws back, but overall the unit had a good day against a good (but overvalued) team.

Now the real question: where do the Irish go from here? Penn State was supposed to be the opponent that would drain them leading into the Michigan game; the starters were all gone by the end of the 3rd quarter. The defense held Penn State to 211 yards through the first 3 quarters before the second and third stringers allowed a pair of meaningless (though long) touchdown drives during garbage time. So did the Irish simply benefit from a bevy of early Nittany mistakes, or are they really that good?

Probably a mix of the two at this point. Coach Weis had a lot of compliments to dish out in the post-game presser, but by Sunday afternoon was back to his churlish self having glanced at the tape. He correctly pounced on the fact that the Irish left scoring opportunities out there during the first half, tallying only 6 points through the first 20 minutes, and the same bug that cut down drives against Georgia Tech - penalties - reared its ugly head on Saturday. There were definitely some slip-ups, but they didn't hurt the Irish due to sheer Nittany Lion ineptitude. The Wolverines are unlikely to be as forgiving.

Paterno has been coaching since before Weis was born, but
the "young gun" came out on top Saturday.

Snow Bowl Revisited

It's one of Notre Dame football's most indelible images - Reggie Brooks, every inch of his body extended, corraling with his fingertips a desperation bullet from the pressured arm of Rick Mirer, stabbing his foot in bounds for a successful 2-point play and a thrilling 17-16 win over Penn State in 1992. It's more than a game. It will live on forever as "The Snow Bowl".

Now, 14 years later, the Nittany Lions return to expanded Notre Dame Stadium riding momentum from an 11-1 campaign in 2005 - and, quite frankly if you ask me, an inflated opinion of themselves. Maybe seeing the Irish struggle in the face of the Georgia Tech blitzkrieg defense has provided a boost to their confidence, but confidence carries you only so far when you're breaking in 8 new defensive players who've never made a road start, let alone one on as big of a stage as Notre Dame Stadium will be on Saturday.

Will the Irish win it all? We'll see. One thing is for sure - they'll have no chance if they don't take care of JoePa and the Nittanies. On to preview #2 of 12:

#4 Notre Dame vs. #19 Penn State
3:30 PM EDT
Notre Dame Stadium - Notre Dame, IN

Why Penn State Will Win

Its linebacking corps is the swiftest and deepest in the country. All-America candidates Paul Pozlusny and Dan Connor certainly feel better about themselves after watching Ga. Tech's Philip Wheeler become the most noticeable player in the Notre Dame backfield on Saturday. They're smart, athletic, and carry a badge of pride as the de-facto leaders on a defense that lost 8 starters, including monster rush end Tamba Hali and the entire secondary.

The thing to watch with the Nittany Lions is how all their young guns on both sides of the ball react to the intensity of the spotlight. It's one thing to be on the sidelines when Michael Robinson is leading a late-charge at Michigan's Big House; it's quite another for Anthony Morelli to assume that wheel on his own in what is sure to be a fired-up Notre Dame Stadium. And lemme ask - if Morelli is the best arm JoePa has ever coached, why'd he ride the bench behind Michael "WR/RB/KR/DB" Robinson?

Make no mistake though, the Nittany Lions are a talented bunch. Most of them very green, but very talented none the less. If they block out distractions and hype and play to their potential, they can pull off the upset.


Why Notre Dame Will Win

All it took was one average game, his first, on the road in a hostile environment, and suddenly Brady Quinn is asking the Heisman voters, "Hey, what about me?"

Quinn knows he dropped opportunities to blow the game open against the Yellow Jackets. The hallmark of a great QB? Never making the same mistake twice. All eyes are on Quinn, and not just because NBC's cameras would rather not show Tom "Man Eater" Zbikowski and his mohawk. This is Quinn's statement game, just like Troy Smith's will be later on tomorrow in Austin. Forget about individual awards and all the other superflous crap - if Notre Dame expects big things to come from this season, it needs a big performance on the biggest of stages from its 4-year starter.

The 4th year is particularly key. The Irish may in fact be less talented than Penn State - but experience is one skill that lacks a tangible element. I can't define how much experience determines the outcome, but I know it when I see it. Look for Quinn and his 8 fellow returning starters to show some moxie and assert themselves early against a young and perhaps foolishly aggressive PSU defense. Getting off to a quick start is key - a young team not only can be deflated quicker, but on the flip side gains confidence and poise the longer you let them stick around.

THE PREDICTION

The biggest thing working in ND's favor is a ton of veteran experience matching up with solid but unproven potential - particularly in the secondary where 4 new starters have to match up with Rhema McKnight & Jeff Samardzija. Much like last week, Irish fans should know that Penn State will make a game of it, but overall leadership and the surge of the home crowd carries the Irish to a late-game clinching score.

Notre Dame 31, Penn State 21.